Bannon Automotive, the little company with ambitious plans to manufacture electric cars in Central New York, isn’t the only automaker hoping that Americans are finally ready to buy electric vehicles.
Several big names in the industry — Ford, Chevrolet and Nissan, among them — also have plans to unveil electric cars soon. Some experts predict that, if gas prices take off again, electric vehicles could gradually take a significant share of the car market.
David Cole, chairman of the nonprofit Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., is not one of them.
“There’s a market, but it’s not very large,” Cole said.
Cole, 72, a veteran automotive researcher, said electric cars are more expensive and more restrictive than gasoline-engine vehicles. They typically limit drivers to a range of 100 miles or less, which makes them unattractive to all but a minority of consumers who value electric vehicles for environmental reasons, Cole said.
The India-born Reva NXR car, which Bannon Automotive would make, will face tough competition from fuel-efficient small gasoline-powered cars, Cole said.
“A lot depends on the pricing,” he said. “The competitor to a vehicle like this would probably be a gasoline-engine car that would be considerably less expensive.”
But other analysts say rising gas prices and changes in the way electric vehicles are marketed could change the equation. A recent study from the University of California estimated electric vehicles could account for 64 percent of all new cars by 2030.
Bannon CEO Paul Wimer said in Syracuse on Friday the company will target the Reva to large metropolitan areas — New York City initially — with lots of commuters who would use the car as an economical way to get to work or a train station and would not mind its limited range.
“We want to provide an affordable alternative to current combustion-engine vehicles,” he said. “Whether it’s to drive to work, to school, to the grocery store, we believe we’ll have the alternative.”
The Reva is slightly smaller than the Toyota Matrix, Wimer said.
“We’re not saying this is going to be the only car in your garage, but it may be your second or third, particularly if you’re using it to drive to work or just using it to drive around town,” he said.
Bannon will price an entry-level, two-seat version of the Reva at about $17,000, Wimer said. Equipped with a lead-acid battery, it will have a top speed of 55 mph and a maximum range of about 50 miles on a single charge, he said.
A three-door hatchback version with four seats will sell for $20,000 to $25,000. It will be equipped with a lithium-ion battery and will have a top speed of 65 mph. A premium model could get up to 100 mph with a high-performance battery and travel 100 to 120 miles on a charge, he said.
Wimer, who stands 6-feet-5 inches tall, said he can sit in the back seat of the hatchback version of the Reva without his head hitting the ceiling.
There are an estimated 60,000 all-electric cars on the road in the United States, but the vast majority are so-called “neighborhood electric vehicles,” which are street-legal but can go no faster than 25 mph, according to the Electric Drive Transportation Association, a trade group.
The Reva NXR, which can travel at highway speeds and is comparable to traditional cars, would have few peers on American roads.
Several manufacturers have tried to introduce mass-market electric vehicles during the past two decades — beginning with General Motors’ EV1 — but most have fallen out of production.
Still, carmakers plan to keep trying.
Nissan plans to roll out the Leaf next year, a four-door electric car “fast enough to get a speeding ticket on the highway,” said Jeannine Ginivan, speaking for Nissan. Mitsubishi is due out next year with its iMiEV electric car; and Chevy will roll out the Volt, an “extended range” electric vehicle with a small gas engine for backup.
Ford will introduce an all-electric version of the Focus in 2011.
“There’s a lot of players,” Wimer said. “There’s a lot of room for everybody. My sense is there’s a real place for plug-in electric vehicles.”
Bannon’s prices are considerably less than the $40,000 that Chevy reportedly plans to charge for the Volt.
Some experts say that changes in the way electric cars are financed could radically improve consumer acceptance.
Electric vehicles could easily account for at least 3 percent of new car sales by 2015, 18 percent by 2020 and 64 percent by 2030, according to a study released in July by the Center for Entrepreneurship and Technology at the University of California, Berkeley.
That outcome could be achieved if consumers have the ability to lease their car batteries separately from buying the car, said study author Thomas A. Becker, a Berkeley economist. The battery leasing option has been championed by an Israeli company, Better Place, and is getting a serious look from manufacturers, including Nissan.
The high-performance lithium ion batteries in today’s electric vehicles are much better than their lead acid predecessors, but they are expensive, often accounting for at least one-third of the cost of an electric vehicle. If consumers could lease the batteries on a per-mile basis, it would cut up-front vehicle costs and would help reduce consumers’ worries about battery life, Becker said.
Electric vehicles typically cost only one-fifth as much to operate as gas-powered cars, said Cole, of the Center for Automotive Research. Wimer said the electricity to power the Reva will cost only about 2 cents a mile.
State officials said Bannon is keenly interested in New York’s commitment to battery research, which could one day bring down the cost.
Gov. David Paterson’s assistant secretary for renewable energy, Sarah Osgood, said she met with Bannon executives last April about the New York Battery Energy and Storage Technology Consortium, a new group of universities and industries working to improve batteries. New York BEST, as the consortium is known, has $25 million in funding, which intrigued the Bannon executives, Osgood said.
“They told me at that time that’s one of the reasons they were considering New York,” Osgood said.
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